Outlook indicators

Churn without collapse: aggregate employment holds, junior white-collar hiring stays depressed, new titles emerge 45% · A defined cohort displaced: entry-level knowledge workers face a Luddite-style adjustment while the aggregate holds 30% · Broad displacement: unemployment rises by more than two points attributable to AI 15% · Productivity disappointment: AI gains fade, hiring normalises, the layoffs prove to have been about costs 10%

25bp hike in December 50% · Hold again; next hike deferred into 2027 40% · Easing bias returns 10%

Talks fail and the Knesset moves to dissolve for another election 35% · Eisenkot-led government formed with Arab party support, inside or outside the coalition 30% · Government including Likud, via a unity deal or opposition defections 25% · Still unresolved at the horizon, with caretaker government continuing 10%

Capex growth is cut or paused; shares re-rate on cash discipline 40% · Spending continues, demand validates it, shares recover 35% · Sector-wide AI capex bust 25%

Criminal prosecutions of operating staff, limited structural change 45% · Systemic signalling reform with accountability at the top of Adif or the ministry 35% · Prolonged political crisis for the government 20%

Quick fade: misses the playoffs within two seasons 55% · Contends again within three seasons 45%

Attrition: airport closed intermittently, front lines shift little 50% · Talks resume towards a renewed truce 30% · Government offensive takes the Red Sea coast and lifts the pressure on Aden 20%

Covert dispersal; the standoff with inspectors continues 50% · Renewed strikes on Iranian sites 25% · An inspections deal restores IAEA access 25%

Squeeze grinds on; Cuban government holds without a deal 55% · Partial easing or limited deal on fuel, migration or prisoners 25% · Breakdown: regime crisis or direct US coercive action 20%