Israeli elections in which neither main camp can reach 61 seats without Arab-led parties. The arithmetic favours a change government, but Zionist leaders' reluctance to depend on Arab lists, often amplified by Netanyahu's delegitimisation of Arab votes, frequently produces reruns or unity deals instead.
Labour and Meretz formed a government that depended on outside support from Hadash and the Arab Democratic Party for a blocking majority.
What happened next: Government formed and governed; it signed the Oslo Accords.change-government
Netanyahu's bloc fell short of 61 after Yisrael Beytenu refused to join; Arab seats meant no rival majority existed without them.
What happened next: No government formed; Knesset dissolved and a rerun was called.rerun
The Joint List won 13 seats and recommended Benny Gantz, the first such recommendation since 1992; neither Netanyahu nor Gantz could form a coalition.
What happened next: No government formed; a third election was held in March 2020.rerun
The Joint List won a then-record 15 seats and again recommended Gantz, giving him a numerical anti-Netanyahu majority.
What happened next: Gantz joined a Netanyahu-led unity government in May 2020; it collapsed in December 2020.unity-government
Deadlock again; Ra'am held the balance and negotiated with both camps.
What happened next: The Bennett–Lapid coalition took office in June 2021 with Ra'am inside it; Netanyahu called it fraud; the coalition collapsed in June 2022.change-government
Share of the 5 cases above that resolved this way. Small samples: treat as a prior, not a forecast.
With about 90% counted, neither bloc has 61 seats, Arab parties hit a record 19, and Likud alleges fraud that police say has no supporting evidence.
