One side attacks the other's airports, power or oil installations to raise the cost of continuing the war and drive it to the table. Roughly half the time it works within months. The other half, the target adapts and the war becomes a longer contest of attrition.
In the final weeks of the Kosovo campaign NATO hit Serbia's electricity system with graphite bombs and then with conventional strikes, blacking out Belgrade.
What happened next: Milosevic accepted NATO's terms after 78 days of bombing, with the loss of civilian services widely seen as a decisive pressure.settlement within months
On the first days of the 2006 war Israel struck Beirut's international airport and other infrastructure to isolate Hezbollah.
What happened next: A UN-brokered ceasefire took effect after 34 days. Hezbollah survived intact and the infrastructure campaign was criticised at home and abroad.settlement within months
Drones and missiles claimed by the Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais facilities, briefly halving the kingdom's output.
What happened next: Riyadh restored production within weeks and opened a back channel with the Houthis. A nationwide truce came only in April 2022, two and a half years later.attrition continues
From October 2022 Russia launched repeated missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian power stations and substations through the winter.
What happened next: Ukraine repaired and dispersed its grid with Western help. The campaign caused hardship but no political concession, and the war continued.attrition continues
Share of the 4 cases above that resolved this way. Small samples: treat as a prior, not a forecast.
The sixth strike on the airport in a month came after an evacuation warning and as government forces, backed by Saudi air power, opened an offensive towards the Red Sea coast near Bab el-Mandeb.
