Every Yemeni war of the past forty years has turned on Aden. Whoever holds the port city holds the south's claim to legitimacy, so fighting there tends to be decisive locally even when the wider war grinds on for years.
A twelve-day war between factions of the ruling party in January 1986 killed thousands in Aden.
What happened next: President Ali Nasir Muhammad fled to the north. The victors ruled a weakened state that unified with North Yemen four years later.decisive locally
Southern leaders declared secession in May 1994. Northern forces besieged and captured Aden in July.
What happened next: The war ended with the south's defeat and unification enforced by force, a grievance that fed the later southern movement.decisive end
Houthi and allied forces took most of Aden in March 2015 as President Hadi fled. A Saudi-led coalition intervened and southern resistance forces retook the city by July.
What happened next: The Houthis were driven from the south but held the capital Sanaa. The wider war settled into a stalemate that lasted years.decisive locally
In August 2019 the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council took Aden from the Saudi-backed government in days of fighting.
What happened next: Saudi Arabia brokered the Riyadh Agreement in November 2019, a power-sharing deal that was implemented only partially.negotiated arrangement
Share of the 4 cases above that resolved this way. Small samples: treat as a prior, not a forecast.
The sixth strike on the airport in a month came after an evacuation warning and as government forces, backed by Saudi air power, opened an offensive towards the Red Sea coast near Bab el-Mandeb.
