A technology company uses boom-era valuations to buy a strategic supplier or rival for tens of billions, betting on a single demand story, and then faces a long multi-jurisdiction review. The deals end in roughly equal measure: closed and written off, blocked or abandoned, or closed and compounding.
AOL used its internet-era stock to agree an all-stock purchase of Time Warner valued at about $165bn, announced in January 2000.
What happened next: Closed in January 2001 after FTC conditions. About $99bn was written off in 2002, and the companies separated by 2009.write-off
JDSU agreed in July 2000 to buy laser maker SDL for about $41bn in stock at the peak of the optical-fibre boom.
What happened next: Closed in February 2001 after the US Justice Department required a pump-laser divestiture. JDSU then wrote down roughly $50bn of goodwill as the telecom bust deepened.write-off
Qualcomm agreed to buy NXP Semiconductors, later raising the cash offer to about $44bn, which required approval in China.
What happened next: China's SAMR never approved the deal during the US–China trade dispute. Qualcomm abandoned it in July 2018 and paid a $2bn break fee.blocked
Nvidia agreed to buy Arm from SoftBank for about $40bn in cash and stock.
What happened next: The FTC sued, and UK, EU and Chinese regulators raised concerns. The deal was abandoned in February 2022.blocked
AMD agreed an all-stock purchase of Xilinx valued at about $35bn.
What happened next: Closed in February 2022 after conditional approval from SAMR, by then worth about $49bn. The deal was broadly judged a success.compounds
Broadcom agreed to buy VMware for about $61bn in equity, or about $69bn including debt.
What happened next: SAMR gave the final approval with conditions in November 2023, about 18 months after the announcement. The deal became a large source of value for Broadcom.compounds
Share of the 6 cases above that resolved this way. Small samples: treat as a prior, not a forecast.
Marvell's $115bn all-stock bid for Lumentum echoes JDSU's $41bn SDL deal at the 2000 fibre peak. Past tech mega-deals have ended three ways.
